So, allegedly Trump has eased tensions with Iran. Allegedly.
Corporate US mainstream media is reporting on the fact that no injuries or fatalities occurred from the Iranian missile strikes. Yet they make it sound like this is because of some form of miracle or because we are such badasses that our military personnel can magically evade getting hit by missile fragments. What our media consistently fails to report is that Iran gave sufficient warning that the strikes were coming. It was their absolute intent to strike equipment, not people. Now that those strikes have occurred, Iran stated they had no intention of engaging in further strikes.
Nothing has changed. None of this changes the fact that a military leader has been assassinated. None of this changes the fact that we attacked the military of a supposed sovereign ally. None of this changes the fact that Iraq wants us gone, Afghanistan wants us gone, Syria wants us gone. None of this changes our illegal actions in numerous countries and still have an illegal presence in Syria. None of this changes the fact that the US is imposing sanctions, tariffs and/or threats of same on nearly every nation on earth.
Isolationism. We can bemoan the fact that trump withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council. From the UN Peace Council. From the International Criminal Court. From the JCPOA. From the INF (Intermediate Nuclear Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty.
No consequences. Then again, what consequences or opposition has he met with for any of this? What consequences has any past administration met with for creating the conditions and power structure which led to all of this? What is the “Resistance” doing to rectify any of these things? What have they suggested? Nothing. They are very much on board with every bit of it.
No punishments. How many people have gone to prison for torture? For invading countries on false “intelligence”? For millions dead in countries that posed no threat? For creating the largest refugee crisis in modern history? For arming and funding terrorist groups? For slave markets in the streets of Libya after we destroyed the country?
Very specific limitations. Right now the only opposition being displayed against Trump are theatrical pieces of legislation to ban funding for a war with Iran. This does not in any way include banning waging war against the 7 other nations we are bombing, to withdraw troops from any of those 7 or the 50 of 54 African nations where we have military forces. There is no legislation to restore funding to Venezuela. No censure on threats or suggestions of peace talks with Russia, China, Venezuela, Iran or North Korea. No withholding of funds to Israel to force them into peace talks entailing actual action with Palestine and Syria. No arms embargo on Saudi Arabia.
Higher chances of confrontation. In other words, we are not any closer to peace than we were last week. We are much closer to a major confrontation with countries that have the ability to fight back. We are closer by the minute to our allies turning our backs on us and our adversaries joining forces against us. Could you blame them?
So, what happens next?
More sanctions. Right now Trump is promising even stronger sanctions against Iran. He is threatening to impose even worse sanctions against Iraq if they practice their right to national sovereignty and force our military occupation to leave.
NATO involvement. Trump has asked for more involvement from NATO, to which the chief of NATO has agreed. However, that request has not yet been placed in front of the people or governments of the NATO member states. Once that happens, I have a feeling the picture will change drastically. The EU relies heavily on oil from ME countries.
Nothing to lose. With multiple ME countries wanting our forces out of the region and ISIS basically reduced to a large street gang with guns, these countries now have the chance to turn their attention toward invasive and belligerent occupying forces from the US and NATO. These countries have been at war for years. They have seen their families depart or die, their homes destroyed. Most of them see little left to lose which they have not already lost. Yet they can see clearly that western intent is to seize their resources for generations, meaning they never actually regain their countries. This means they have no reason to not turn on the western invaders who caused these conditions for them.
The coming response. It is imminent that at some point the countries being occupied against the will of the residents will choose to regain their true sovereignty, their resources, their freedom to choose their own destinies rather than have those destinies dictated, subjugated, darkened by debt they did not rightfully incur. They will, as Iraq is doing, try and peacefully instruct our forces to leave. If that fails, we can absolutely expect that a gradual increase in force will take place. Iraq has taken their plea in front of the UN General Assembly. Note: They intentionally took this before the General Assembly, NOT the Security Council, which the US controls too harshly. If that fails, expect other responses. Cutting off supply sources. Complete separation of their forces from ours. If all that fails, then expect military assaults on a small scale. If we respond militarily, they will respond with devastating force. If that happens, many thousands of US service members will perish very quickly.
Turning east. For some time, Russia and China have been making diplomatic efforts with ME governments. These efforts have seen gradually increasing success in spite of western opposition and threats. What you can rely on is that Russia and China have offered to supply and possibly assist these countries, meaning the ME countries do not have to be dependent on the US/UK for weapons and supplies. Between Russia and China, there is absolutely nothing we can offer which they cannot, without making imperialist claims on resources. Often what they offer also comes with higher efficiency, lower cost and less bureaucracy, making trade on all fronts more attractive when discounting or ignoring threats.
The imperialistic threats continuously escalating from the US have reached maximum density for most countries across the globe. Like any abusive relationship, that abuse can only continue and escalate so far before the victims fight back. At this point, every nation on the planet feels victimized by the US to varying degrees. It is no longer debatable that all will gradually respond in their own manner. Some will decrease trade and diplomatic efforts. Some will cut ties entirely. Others will form alliances and fight back. Those alliances will be highly successful because our military and weapons capability is stretched far too thin.
On multiple occasions we have run out of bombs to drop, meaning production is at capacity. That also means if more capacity is needed, we cannot supply other countries. That poses a problem in itself, as countries we have contracted with to supply weapons, if forced to defend themselves (like Saudi Arabia) and we cannot honor weapons contracts, will turn elsewhere. Chinese drone sales have increased significantly. The Russian S400 and other systems are being sold to many countries, including NATO members.
Sanctions and tariffs have done more damage to US consumers and businesses than the countries they are directed at. The responses have gradually been countries forming new trade deals which bypass the US or develop entirely new industries of their own. It was US sanctions which caused Russia to expand oil/gas production and become the world leading grain exporter. Our threats mean less and less and will continue meaning less as time goes on. The literal truth is that the entire world could probably survive extremely well if all other nations suspended trade with the US at this point. The dollar would plummet in value if that happened and it is happening gradually.
Now, I will say that there is always the possibility that my assessment is wrong. That depends on what happens next. There could be decisions made or circumstances which change which could cause a radical shift in direction. Considering US history of always increasing aggression, CIA manipulation and illegal intervention, I do not see such changes or circumstances happening without major consequences before we are absolutely forced to engage in peace efforts.