The first stimulus bill expires this week. For many Americans, the stimulus already expired, which will leave a gap in their income.
In addition, the eviction moratorium also expires in 3 days, leaving millions of Americans at risk of being evicted from homes and apartments. Landlords have not wasted any time, in some cases they have already filed eviction notices with courts, ready to deliver on August 1st.
While the House and Senate, Republicans and Democrats, have had months to negotiate terms for ongoing support of the American people in need, as of this time they have failed to do so. This with full knowledge that lives will be placed in danger, along with the entire economy. It is highly questionable whether they will reach any agreement for an economic package before leaving DC on Thursday of this week.
Republicans and Trump want to drastically decrease the amount of support for the unemployed. Trump’s idea is actually more generous than the general GOP. The GOP wants to eliminate any additional unemployment support or limit the additional support to $200 (arguably per week or even month, depending on the source). Trump wants to limit support to 70% of a person’s regular income.
While Trump’s idea is more generous than the general GOP, it is still a major decrease in income for many. Keep in mind that at full pay, before the pandemic ever came along, half of Americans could not afford a $400 emergency. For those who were making minimum wage or barely above, that 30% drop in income will be the final nudge which pushes them over the edge financially.
Trump also wants a payroll tax moratorium. It remains to be seen if the suspended taxes would then be due next year. However, he wants this as the national debt is currently over $26.5 trillion and the deficit is nearly $3 trillion.
No matter which way these things go, we are now set to be experiencing numerous crises successively over several years, making our current situation seem trivial by comparison.
The GOP and Trump plans for recovery rely entirely on people going back to work. This completely ignores the hundreds of thousands of jobs which already no longer exist, not to mention the long list of pending bankruptcies and closures indicating millions more jobs which will no longer exist in the very near future.
First, there will be the evictions, forcing Americans out on the streets within days. In millions of cases, the rent which has not been paid will become due as a lump sum which residents cannot afford. Yet this will impact their future credit ratings, which may impact their ability to gain employment if their credit history is used as a factor in determining suitability for employment.
Then there will be the claimed loss of income by landlords/equity owners and property management companies. This will lead to many bankruptcies and closures.
The combination of the two above will lead to extreme decreases in property values, meaning lost tax revenue for municipalities in the long term.
Decreased incomes will lead to an historic drop in consumer spending, leading to more business failures, closures and bankruptcies.
All of the lost revenues will lead to bank stresses which will probably lead to bank failures. Because banking systems are so interwoven, this will create a domino effect with more and more banks being affected. As banks begin to fail, we will absolutely see at least some level of a run on the banks. How bad that will be is hard to determine at this time but we can expect it to be far worse than the S&L crisis of the 80’s.
The combination of all the above will cause a decline in the stock market unlike anything yet seen in our lifetimes.
Expect to see an increase in property crimes as more people become desperate.
Later in the year, mortgage moratoriums end if no steps are taken to prevent it. That will lead to a second round of all the above, even as we are suffering the cumulative effects of what is coming.
Next year, we will see a tax crisis as taxes come due for any untaxed unemployment benefits, along with any delayed effects of stimulus checks and other benefits handed to individuals and businesses.
Through all of this, we can likely expect to see massive rises in alcohol and substance abuse while people are under extreme stress with no relief and police are busy suppressing your freedom of speech.
Expect to see increased militarization of the police as they crack down on protests and riots. This will result in increasing violence from protesters, as we are already seeing in Portland. The Establishment using force to suppress civil rights only sparks a cycle where the violence continues to escalate.
Obviously, most of the responsibility for this will be laid at Trump’s feet. No question, the use of federal forces against civilian protesters is absolutely his fault. However, these events have been imminent for many years and approaching this point.
Right now, far more could be done to lessen the economic and medical effects on the US general public, yet those efforts are not being even considered by either major party in either House or Senate. Every entity of our government is actively involved in supporting the corporate supremacy and increasing use of force against the American people when we rise up against this system.
Yet we have no choice remaining but to rise up against this system. While I still remain dedicated in a non-violent effort to change our system, I am losing hope daily that any non-violent response will be effective any more. I feel that the next few weeks may well be the trigger point which eliminates any peaceful options for us.
I hope I am wrong.