Personally, I am not optimistic about the intermediate short term future of the dollar. There are more factors involved here.

A number of countries are not merely turning away from the dollar for trade but also selling off US Treasury bonds. Considering this is the mechanism by which the US government borrows money, this sets up a cycle whereby existing debt remains static or increases owing to interest over time. When one country sells Treasuries, another country may buy bonds which are already closer to maturity than new bonds. Meanwhile, new funds can only be attained by currency creation, diluting the value of existing currency.

Like you mentioned, this indicates deteriorating confidence in the dollar.

Numerous countries have been buying precious metals as a reserve currency. Especially Russia and China.

Add all this to the rising debt, deficit and a $50 billion trade deficit, the dollar looks like it’s in for a rough ride.

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