The tale being told to us is that Iran was somehow behind the drone attack on what is reportedly the world’s largest oil refinery. The result of that attack being a reduction of Saudi oil production by a full 50%.
First, read that last sentence again. Saudi oil production has been reduced by a full 50%.
Now, there is the fact that the Saudis had voluntarily reduced oil production for quite some time to boost oil prices. Because the US has maintained oil production, the Saudi reduction had limited success and oil prices have remained low.
Now consider the fact that this is occurring at the exact same time that several other major oil producing nations are being actively and aggressively sanctioned by the US, driving down the oil available on the world market. Iran, Venezuela and Russia are all being sanctioned at the same time.
Not only is there no evidence that Iran was involved in this, they would stand nothing to gain from it and it would involve considerable risk. Israel and the US are already standing with their itchy fingers on the triggers, anxious to find an excuse to attack Iran. With a false accusation against Iran, this would drag Saudi Arabia into that mixture. Iran stated that they could and would block the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic to and from Saudi Arabia. That action is legal while involving no violence or destruction of infrastructure.
The destruction of the Saudi refinery does not lead to increased oil sales for Iran. It does increase oil sales for the US.
Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility for the attack and had announced plans for effective attacks weeks prior. All in response to years of the worst humanitarian crisis in modern times imposed on their country by Saudi Arabia.
There can be little question that one expected result of this will be increased use of the petrodollar. However- If the US and OPEC nations are unable to meet the demand for oil on the international market, that could very well backfire. Winter months in the Northern hemisphere are not far off, especially for Northern Europe, where winter begins as early as late Sept or early October. So this could very well result in Europe increasing oil purchasing from Russia, thanks to unpredictable supply and increased pricing regarding the US oil supply. Winter months are the most turbulent for the north Atlantic, the route tankers must traverse between the US and Europe. China may well break with the US and increase oil purchases from Venezuela and Iran.
Should other countries make such trade agreements, there is the very good chance that any oil trade agreements will be gone for years, decades, possibly forever.
One of the biggest tasks for the US administration now will be to convince other nations that Iran is somehow responsible for the attack. This is not likely to happen, as other nations are less likely than the US to run up further debt than they currently have for the purpose of waging what will absolutely be a protracted war with Iran. Other nations have a longer history than the US and have not forgotten the invasion of Iraq or destruction of Syria via US terrorist proxies. Europe is still dealing with the fallout of refugees coming from Middle Eastern countries, placing extreme strain on their economies and safety. Nor have they been convinced that Iran violated the terms of the JCPOA, which has been the ongoing rationale for the increased tensions with Iran. Nor are they blind to the Trump administration attempting to find an excuse to attack Iran.
As of today, oil prices have increased by 20%. In real terms, that is an increase of 40¢ on every $2 gallon of gas. As winter approaches, that cost will increase. The effects on the US and other economies will be immediate, severe and long term. We will soon see increases in the prices of all consumer goods, utility bills and electronic services.
We ALL need to stop this in it’s tracks by calling and writing our elected officials to tell them NO WAR WITH IRAN.
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
I am an independent writer with no corporate sponsors or backing. The only income I make from my writing comes from views. At least I have reached the point where it makes more than it costs me! lol! (Not by much.)My writing is done in between full time (and overtime) nursing, shared custody of my brilliant daughter and mundane existence.
I have opened my new website which is intended to be a central listing of protests and political rallies across the US. It’s still a work in progress but is functional. You can find it at http://RallyAndProtest.com
Please consider becoming a patron on Patreon. I try and average at least 20 articles a month, so a $1 a month donation would come down to 5¢ per article to support independent, non-corporate writing. My Patreon page is here.
If you care to share articles with those who do not have Medium or Patreon accounts, I also post most of my articles on my own website, which has no advertising and I pay for with income from writing. My website is at https://issuesunite.com/ and all articles can be shared freely. You can always quote me, no attribution required. My goal is spreading information and awareness. The whole point is building a better, more peaceful, more equitable world for us and future generations.