Syrian Kurdish Conflict- A Simplified Sequence Of Events- Past, Present, Future
Many Americans are raging against the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, claiming that the US government is abandoning the Kurds to the Turkish invasion.
The biggest problem with this is that these Americans have not paid any attention to any part of this conflict except what corporate media has fed them. They are completely unaware of the sequence which led to this point.
So, this is a simplified review of events leading up to this point and where it is most likely to lead in the future.
2014- The YPK, PKK (Kurdish militant groups) and Al Qaeda are listed as extremist terrorist groups by the US government.
2015- All three groups engage in attacks against the Syrian government. This leads to the US State Department downgrading the terminology regarding all three groups from “terrorist organizations” to “moderate rebels”. The US military and CIA begin covertly funding and arming all three groups. This includes Al Qaeda, the leading alleged organization responsible for the attacks on the World trade Center and the Pentagon on 9/11/01.
Each group maintains the same tactics and ideology which they adhered to before this change occurs with no changes other than to become more violent than ever.
These attacks lead to a massive refugee crisis out of Syria, overwhelming neighboring countries and Europe, with thousands dying in the attempt to reach a safe haven.
In response to the terrorist attacks, the Syrian government requests assistance from Russia to repel the attacks. Russia agrees, having a long history of alliance with Syria. Note that Russia has had a naval base in Syria for over 40 years.
Iran offers assistance to repel the terrorist attacks, an offer which is accepted by the Syrian government.
2016- The Syrian government asks the Kurds to participate in peace talks which include the Kurds, Syria, Russia and Iran. The US government discourages the Kurds from participating and refuses to participate as more than passive observer status.
Multiple meetings between Syria, Russia, Turkey and Iran will take place through 2016 through 2018.
Wikileaks releases Hillary Clinton’s emails documenting US funding and support for terrorist organizations. The media conducts a full court blackout on the documents. The revelation forces the Obama administration to end official arms supplies and funding to NGO (non-governmental organizations) militias.
2017/2018/2019- The Syrian Arab Army (official military of Syria), the Russian military and Hezbollah, backed by Iran, show tremendous success in defeating terrorist organizations in Syria, retaking most of the Syrian territories under control of the Syrian government.
2018- Assad wins democratic election as president of Syria.
The Turkish government still considers the Kurdish militia groups to be terrorist organizations. The Turkish military begins incursions into northern Syria to defeat Kurdish militant groups in addition to Al Qaeda and ISIS.
2019- Trump announces withdrawal of US forces from Syria. US forces have been present in Syrian territory illegally since 2015, according to the UN Security Council and UN Peace Council. US forces were never granted permission to be in Syria by the only entities with the authority to grant legality to their presence- The UN Security Council, the Syrian government or the Russian government.
The media portrays the withdrawal as an abandonment of the Kurds, still considered terrorists by Turkey and Syria. No mention of the illegal status of US forces is reported by corporate media. No mention of the previous designation as terrorist organizations is mentioned. No mention that Syria and Turkey consider them terrorist organizations at this time.
Turkey increases the intensity of the attacks on the Syrian Kurds.
The Kurdish militia requests assistance from the Syrian government and strike a deal with the Assad administration to participate in peace talks. The Syrian military mobilizes to assist the Kurds and drive the Turkish military out of Syria.
This brings us up to the present. So, what can we expect to happen in the future?
Most likely it can be expected that the Turkish government will withdraw from Syria, either before engaging the Syrian military or shortly after beginning to do so. Mention has been made of establishing a no fly zone over northern Syria. However, this would lead to a direct confrontation with Russian air forces, while Russia has not agreed to the no fly zone. Even if the US attempts to force the issue, expect Turkey to retreat from the suggestion, not wanting military confrontation with Russia.
Expect to hear more attempts at peace talks between the Kurds, Syria, Turkey, Russia and Iran. Without US intercession, these peace talks are highly likely to succeed, building a coalition between all countries involved. These peace talks will go unreported by corporate media.
In response, expect the US to intensify sanctions against Turkey, the member of the coalition with the current fewest sanctions imposed upon them.
All or part of the coalition will drive the remainder of terrorist forces from central and northern Syria.
Then expect the coalition governments to offer similar assistance to the Iraqi government, which will be accepted. Then the enlarged and strengthened coalition will set their sights on Yemen, driving out Saudi forces permanently.
By the end of all of this, expect all of the coalition countries to turn to attempts at peace efforts with Saudi Arabia and Israel, by willing invitation or by brute force. The US will likely be unwelcome to participate in these peace efforts.